SpaceX Starlink, the Global Satellite Internet Program

A few business and geopolitical questions as we blast off in 2021

The SpaceX Starlink program is intended to provide global internet services through low-orbiting satellites. That is, an internet service able to reach the world’s population, seven billion people!

As of June 2020, Starlink launched 418 satellites for this program. Initial consumer service is planned for U.S. and Canada in late 2020. Eventually, there may be 12,000 (could go 42,000) of these small satellites, each weighing about 570 pounds and the size of a desk. In early 2019, Amazon (Project Kuiper) filed plans with FCC to launch 3,200 satellites for a similar global internet. Elon Musk (SpaceX), Jeff Bezos (Amazon) and some others are rockets-away on this.

As a technologist and investor, I’m excited too. I do have a few questions:

• How does this affect other businesses and investments?
• What new businesses will this spawn? For example, telemedicine and online education and games for the masses.
• How does this affect 5G? Tons of money are being invested in much-anticipated 5G.
• Will businesses and websites eventually be hosted in space? This could reduce latency time and cooling costs.
• Musk says annual revenue could be $30 billion U.S. but doesn’t provide the corresponding number of users and pricing. Will pricing be different for users in more-affordable rural Kansas versus ones in less-affordable Kenya? How does potential for geographic pricing coincide with [theoretically] all users being geographically indiscernible?
• How will this affect AT&T, China Mobile, Verizon, Vodafone, etc, and the cable companies? Seems like they may be disrupted.

What are the geopolitical implications?

• Currently, ground stations, called gateways, are required both for linking to the internet backbone (our websites and data) and for satellite-to-satellite (crosslinking) communications. Twenty-six gateways are planned for U.S.; many more are required for global deployment. This physical requirement hardly makes Starlink globally ubiquitous. Assuming these physical gateways are eliminated with digital interfaces, will national internet regulatory requirement be preempted? Will this negate national firewalls (like in ones China and Iran)?
• Elon announce in January 2020 a UFO (USB type interface for individual device) that an individual could set up (“no training required”); perhaps evolving to a system-on-chip. With this technology, anyone anywhere could just indiscriminately jump on. What government controls might or could there be?
• Will terrestrial websites and data (ironically called ‘the cloud’) eventually reside in some space-based data center? Will businesses domicile in space?
• What government or agency will control this internet? How will this be taxed and by whom?
• Can these satellites be shot down? Suspect so but there will be so many (like bees) that are redundant and easily replaceable. Currently, Starlink is launching 60 satellites at a time but there are plans to launch 400 at a time.
• Nothing is hack-proof. What happens if these are hacked or jammed?
• How will social media type issues be controlled? Or terrorist communications? Who defines terrorism?
• Starlink is working with the U.S. military. How will this affect global commercial deployment?
• Eventually, Starlink may be launched from some barge in the ocean and, given an optimistic view of technology (i.e. no ground stations and a low-cost consumer device), will countries have a say with this technology?

The geopolitical implications are immediate. And these implications will be compounded by the globalization of other corporations; particularly, Big Tech with a possible 80% of employees, customers, suppliers, facilities, and shareholders soon to be international. Tesla is an example; Chinese techs, such as Alibaba, are following. Will corporations, with their power, social influence, services, and money, transcend governments (many of which are in-debt and under-delivering). How loyal will giga-corporations be? And, to whom?

There are many other questions. And, there are problems like space debris and light pollution. There are limitations; such as, data volume capacity for a given area (currently Starlink works better for less dense rural area versus high-density urban areas). With technology, what’s true today may not be true tomorrow, and vice versa.

The ‘Internet in the Sky’ concept has been imagined and attempted multiple times in last 25 years. Satellites, high-altitude balloons, and drones have been piloted. Risks are high and failures are expensive. But who’s going to over-imagine and over-execute Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos? Additionally, Elon intends Starlink to fund his Mars dream. The space station was launched in 1998; isn’t it time for some company — stepping stones to Mars? In June 2020, Elon put all his earth-based homes on the market. I’m all in with Starlink; checking with wife tonight on our putting home on market for Mars too. Wish me well.

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